Oh, excess mortality, why don‘t you go away? While we are still grappling with the time period until June 2022, THERE WILL BE A NEW DEATH. Here are deaths by calendar week for Germany (dashed lines are all deaths minus official Covid deaths - of the latter, the numbers for the last two weeks are preliminary); median is for 2016-2019):
All our old friends are there: the spring 2018 influenza wave, the bad Covid winter 2020/2021, and the autumn 2021 disaster That Must Not Be Named. But what about the summer of 2022? Sure, we have seen summer spikes before (week 24 of 2021, week 30 of 2019, week 31 of 2018, week 33 of 2020) but almost 80,000 deaths in a 4-week period are unprecedented. Destatis has taken notice, of course, and this is their current explanation:
Zwischen Mitte Juni und Anfang August zeigten sich dabei in allen Wochen Ergebnisse über den Vergleichswerten. Zeitgleich stiegen zum einen die COVID-19 Sterbefälle wieder an, zum anderen wurden immer wieder sehr hohe Temperaturen verzeichnet. Besonders erhöht waren die Sterbefallzahlen im Sommer 2022 dabei in Kalenderwoche 29 vom 18. bis 24. Juli mit +24 %. Dass im Zuge von Hitzewellen die Sterbefallzahlen ansteigen ist ein bekannter Effekt, der auch in den Vorjahren beobachtet wurde.
Translation:
Between the middle of June and the end of August, all weeks exhibited elevated results. In parallel, Covid deaths went up, and temperatures frequently were very high. In particular, calendar week 29 (July 18-24) saw an increase of +24%. It is well known, and has been observed in previous years, that mortality rates go up during heat waves.
OK, it’s the weather, then? Temperature data are available from Deutscher Wetterdienst (dwd, “weather and climate one-stop” – not the best of ideas, if you ask me). Let’s start with monthly data, and compare all the Julies (is that the correct plural? And are plurals of month names even a thing?) from 2000 to 2022. The diagram shows average temperatures (right axis: degree Celsius) for the five largest German cities (which incidentally are also covering east, north, south, west and middle of the country), together with the number of deaths (left axis).
Hamburg is the place to be during summer. Temperatures in July 2022 in all the cities seem quite inconspicuous to me – which is not the case for the number of deaths. Maybe we have to increase the resolution? We won’t bother with weekly data, and jump to daily. According to the monthly data, Frankfurt is hottest overall, so let’s go there. The following diagram plots temperature (degree Celsius, resolution 0.1 degrees, horizontal axis) against deaths (vertical axis), for all the months of July and August from 2000 to 2022. The black rings are 2000-2021, the red dots 2022 (until August 14).
Yes, there is a trend. Temperature is correlated with number of deaths (if you are interested: Pearson correlation is 57.42% for 2000-2021, and 57.66 when 2022 is included). However, the 2022 figures are still sticking out. What might be the reason(s)? You know, sometimes there are stories behind the numbers. For example, the green dot marks July 14, 2021, a rather cold day with enormous amounts of rain, that led to floodings of certain rivers (particularly the Ahr), which cost almost 200 lives. Without these deaths, the day would have been unremarkable. The yellow dot stands for July 9, 2014, the day after Germany beat Brazil 7:1 in the football world cup semi-final. Might have overjoyed some folks…
So, temperature is a factor but hardly the only one. Ageing population? To some extent, definitely. Covid deaths? After subtracting the baseline, not so much. Side effects of the campaign for second booster? Long-term effects of either Covid or vaccination? Neglect in care homes due to staff shortages (remember that Covid vaccination is still compulsory for healthcare personnel in Germany)?
And finally, if high temperatures are such a problem, why is air conditioning in care homes not being campaigned for with the same vigour as was done for air filters in schools during Covid?
Interesting. You found the large number of summer deaths noteworthy as well. However I think Hamburg really did have a few very hot weeks in July. I can't make out all the dots belonging to Hamburg, because I have pretty severe issues with color perception, but I did look at the DWD data as well a week ago.