Die-a-grams

Numbers 26:64

Inspired by this post (see also Joel Smalley’s previous posts here and here), I will present some diagrams regarding mortality in Germany. First of all, here are the raw numbers (all of these are compiled, and made publicly available, by the Statistisches Bundesamt):

The first table (“population”) contains year-end population figures for Germany, stratified by age group. Below that, you find the number of deaths per year and age group, and the proportions of deaths, as [number in the “deaths” table] divided by [number in the “population” table]. The last table splits the 0-70 deaths into those that occurred in the first and second half of the respective year.

Yes, I am aware that by fiddling with the age grouping one can both avoid and create Simpson’s paradoxes.

Here’s population and proportions of deaths for the 0-70 age group:

The population decline in 2012 is likely to have some technical reason. In 2016, you can observe the impact of the “migration crisis”. Note that the population axis does not start at zero; this portion of the population is quite stable (but if you zoomed in further, you might detect some shifts between age groups).

The year 2020 has been somewhat bad, similar to the flu year 2018. The year 2021 has been really bad; more on that at the end of this post.

Same diagram for the 70-75 age group:

Population has declined and seems to have reached a certain plateau. As for the 0-70 age group, 2020 has been bad, and 2021 really bad.

Next, please. Here’s 75-80:

Population peaked in 2017. Mortality rates have been declining throughout, but 2021 has stopped that trend. I suspect that in this age group one would have to take into account the effect of improving health care, and of WW2 and the subsequent hunger years.

And 80-85:

As for the 75-80 group, mortality rates have been declining. It is hard to say if 2020 and 2021 have stopped the trend. Population has increased by quite a margin; almost 50% (!) since 2014.

And finally 85+:

Again, quite an increase in population, despite high mortality rates throughout.

To summarize: the 80+ age groups now constitute a much larger part of the population than even five years ago. Mortality rates for 2020 and 2021 in these groups (which do most of the heavy lifting in the death business) are inconspicuous. Not much of a pandemic to see here.

The situation is very different for the 0-70 and 70-75 age groups. The public has to really, really wake up to what happened in 2021. To illustrate further, here are the 0-70 mortality rates (cf. the first diagram above) split by first and second half of the year:

Traditionally, many more deaths occur in the first half of the year, presumably due to waves of influenza and other viruses, the only exception in recent history being 2014. The second half of 2020 might actually be attributed to Covid, but 2021 is a totally different beast. Even after adjusting for official Covid deaths (dashed lines), the second half of 2021 is worrying. And the official Covid figures have to be taken with a grain of salt anyway - something Karl Lauterbach would refuse to do.