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Remarkable that there is not more of a signal in the over 70's.. According to RKI 84% of deaths have been over 70 years of age (over 70's forming only 7% of cases). Indeed, 50% of deaths have been over 84 years of age. So was there a lot of pull forward/dry tinder?

And is there not more granular info for under 70's available?? Grouping 18 year olds and 68 year olds together seems to guarantee Simpson's Paradox.

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Yes, dry tinder has to be considered. The years 2019 and 2020 did not have much of a flu season (which usually takes place in February/March). The first Covid wave hit in April 2020.

There is granular info available (for deaths: 0-15, 15-30, then in 5y buckets) but I omitted it for three reasons:

1) I'm lazy.

2) For the lower age groups, absolute numbers of deaths pre year are small anyway (around 3500 for 0-15, around 4000 for 15-30, around 2600 for 30-35, and so on). It is hard to identify a signal there. Additional factors come into play; just think of deaths by drowning (very few in 2021, possibly due to the rainy summer).

3) Unfortunately, in Germany, information about vaccinations is only available for the 5-11, 12-17, 18-59 and 60+ age brackets.

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