Remarkable that there is not more of a signal in the over 70's.. According to RKI 84% of deaths have been over 70 years of age (over 70's forming only 7% of cases). Indeed, 50% of deaths have been over 84 years of age. So was there a lot of pull forward/dry tinder?
And is there not more granular info for under 70's available?? Grouping 18 year olds and 68 year olds together seems to guarantee Simpson's Paradox.
Yes, dry tinder has to be considered. The years 2019 and 2020 did not have much of a flu season (which usually takes place in February/March). The first Covid wave hit in April 2020.
There is granular info available (for deaths: 0-15, 15-30, then in 5y buckets) but I omitted it for three reasons:
1) I'm lazy.
2) For the lower age groups, absolute numbers of deaths pre year are small anyway (around 3500 for 0-15, around 4000 for 15-30, around 2600 for 30-35, and so on). It is hard to identify a signal there. Additional factors come into play; just think of deaths by drowning (very few in 2021, possibly due to the rainy summer).
3) Unfortunately, in Germany, information about vaccinations is only available for the 5-11, 12-17, 18-59 and 60+ age brackets.
Remarkable that there is not more of a signal in the over 70's.. According to RKI 84% of deaths have been over 70 years of age (over 70's forming only 7% of cases). Indeed, 50% of deaths have been over 84 years of age. So was there a lot of pull forward/dry tinder?
And is there not more granular info for under 70's available?? Grouping 18 year olds and 68 year olds together seems to guarantee Simpson's Paradox.
Yes, dry tinder has to be considered. The years 2019 and 2020 did not have much of a flu season (which usually takes place in February/March). The first Covid wave hit in April 2020.
There is granular info available (for deaths: 0-15, 15-30, then in 5y buckets) but I omitted it for three reasons:
1) I'm lazy.
2) For the lower age groups, absolute numbers of deaths pre year are small anyway (around 3500 for 0-15, around 4000 for 15-30, around 2600 for 30-35, and so on). It is hard to identify a signal there. Additional factors come into play; just think of deaths by drowning (very few in 2021, possibly due to the rainy summer).
3) Unfortunately, in Germany, information about vaccinations is only available for the 5-11, 12-17, 18-59 and 60+ age brackets.