In this he has two interesting charts. The first is acres of forest burned in the US over the past 25 years and it clearly shows that global warming is causing more forest fires. The second chart is acres burned in the US over the last 125 years. And this chart shows how everyone was fooled by the first chart because when you look over a longer time period you see more excursions from 'normal'.
So, given this idea of zooming out, have you looked at other time periods to compare them with your 'normal' years? This might not make sense to do because society is different today than say 30 years ago.
But I wonder if we are seeing what we 'expect' to see in this data.
In 2022 we have observed a descent from the 2016-2021 plateau. Numbers of births were much lower during the 2000-2015 period. In 2016 (in particular, but also in the years following) the inflow of migrants increased the number of women of child-bearing age.
The first thing to study is the long-term development of the number of births, second thing is this number of potential mothers. I will try to collect some long-term data. However, what is unusual about 2022 (and presumably 2023) is the simultaneous decrease across the first world.
Genesis 4:5-6? A fallen countenance.
El Gato Malo posted
https://open.substack.com/pub/boriquagato/p/wildfires-bad-policy-is-ensuring?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=rp6n5
In this he has two interesting charts. The first is acres of forest burned in the US over the past 25 years and it clearly shows that global warming is causing more forest fires. The second chart is acres burned in the US over the last 125 years. And this chart shows how everyone was fooled by the first chart because when you look over a longer time period you see more excursions from 'normal'.
So, given this idea of zooming out, have you looked at other time periods to compare them with your 'normal' years? This might not make sense to do because society is different today than say 30 years ago.
But I wonder if we are seeing what we 'expect' to see in this data.
Just a thought.
Yes, long-term trends can dominate short-term developments. We do not have to look further than Germany:
https://www.file-upload.net/download-15158114/BirthsGermany2000-2022.jpg.html
In 2022 we have observed a descent from the 2016-2021 plateau. Numbers of births were much lower during the 2000-2015 period. In 2016 (in particular, but also in the years following) the inflow of migrants increased the number of women of child-bearing age.
The first thing to study is the long-term development of the number of births, second thing is this number of potential mothers. I will try to collect some long-term data. However, what is unusual about 2022 (and presumably 2023) is the simultaneous decrease across the first world.