I am curious as to why you would include pandemic years in the baseline.
I have used 2015-2019 inclusive as a baseline for "extra" (not excess) deaths and tried to parse out 2020 as a C19 only year, then 2021 as a partially vaxxed year and 2022 and 2023 as fully vaxxed years.
This does not adjust for the different strains of the SARS-COV2 virus - but gives a "feel" for what is going on.
To be clear, I don't believe there ever was a pandemic - most (95%) of C19 cases and deaths were misdiagnosed as "caused" by C19. 95% of deaths with C19 present were actually "death by healer" (murder) or preventable with antibiotics or were from cessation of existing treatments for other conditions.
I have cross posted this article as I think it has quality and valuable info!
Births and deaths are different (well, who would have guessed that...). Deaths depend on the structure of the population pyramid, and are mostly involuntary. Births depend on the number of women of child-bearing age (which can also change, but usually not that much) and on conscious decisions. Deaths immediately react to external influence (a pandemic, say), births with nine-months delay. The effect of Covid vaccination on births can only be visible from the beginning of 2022. The pandemic of 2020 seems to have had an effect on 2021 births for some countries (France, Portugal), but not for many.
The calendar year effect could be explained by birth not being immediately registered at birth. The birth statistics can be backed filled. Check out the British Columbia Vital Statistics.
This is an issue for some countries, particularly Switzerland (although I don't know how this can happen in a country where all trains are on time, always), but most countries rarely have to correct their figures, say, after three months.
And what did we see after a two year hiatus? They painted the same kind of pattern. Monthly, monthly, monthly, oh shit. Pause one year. Another year. Panic. Pretend this is normal. And we're supposed to fall for this crap?
Counting births by date of registration is easy, counting them by date of occurrence is much harder. Some countries are better at that, some are worse. Australia seems to be bad, i.e., it takes longer until the figures are reliable. My guess: 2022 will end up with around 290,000 births, like 2020. Quite a drop when compared to 2021 (305,000 births), and reason enough to look for causes, but not exactly genocide.
I won’t believe a single word they say. They will lie and obfuscate. They painted themselves into a corner in 2021. They KNOW that the vaccines are biological weapons. Australia’s live birth reporting has gone from month-by-month to almost two years in arrears. It’s nearly 2024!
There is a recession in many european countries, especially in Germany. When the DDR broke down, the birth rates dropped dramatically. Germany is the worst off country at the moment. Thus, a drop in birth rates can also be caused by the economic situation in Europe.
Yes, it can. I will try to include some measure of economic well-being (like change in GDP divided by population size) into my collection of correlations.
Excellent work staying with the European births data. So there appears to be a continued step down in 2023, sadly. Depopulation appears to already be here...
Well, falling birth rates have been evident for some decades: in Japan and Italy for example they are catastrophic and have been for a generation. So its complicated, but I certainly see this fall as way outside the trend.
Oh yes, for most Eastern and Southern European countries we basically see the continuation of a trend. It's different for Central and Northern Europe, however.
There is data for Bulgaria in the Excel file, and a chart as well ("b Bul"). Monthly data are available for 2017-2022. By visual inspection of the chart, there has been a downward trends of births in Bulgaria during that time, but not much else. In particular, 2022 just confirms the trend.
No, it doesn't. The population pyramid will become top-heavy, which is bad. However, the reasons for the decline are not at all obvious. For most Eastern and Southern European countries, we basically see the continuation of a pre-pandemic trend. But now the Middle, Western and Northern European countries have suddenly joined. Is this due to declining number of women of child-bearing age (I don't think so, at least for Germany, although the authorities are claiming this to be the case)? Is it due to conscious decisions not to have children (because climate or whatever)? Yes, there are crazy people out there. Is it due to the Covid vaccines? Maybe, but why don't we observe the trend everywhere? Argumentation would have been easier if the downward trend had stopped in 2023, but it didn't.
It's just a whole lot of factors affecting various subpopulations in different ways and they are all stacking up. Some of these factors are very elusive and not easy to measure - like the impact of propagandistic efforts.
Lets go deeper: falling population fertility is not just a white thing: it is also happening in China and Japan, even Brazil.
Is it a bad thing? Well, not if we can bring in the brightest and best SE Asians and Africans - mainly to run our grocery stores, wipe our bums and do our laundry. (their kids will become doctors and wealthy business-peeps - immigrants tend to be aspirational and bright)
Is this good for Africa and SE Asia? Maybe so, if they keep sending remittances home to keep their families alive.
Clearly it is imperfect and complex, but I don't have any serious problems with keeping global population at between 1-2 billion humans, as long as it it voluntary. This would be good for the planet and wildlife... we would flourish. Nor do I have any problems with racial mixing - it is almost certainly a good thing genetically, albeit can create short-term social disparities and tensions.
Much of the 'killing' appears to be hard wired - human beings always compete for resources, and the use of inter-tribal violence has been endemic since our emergence. It may even have had some evolutionary advantages, 'survival of the fittest' - in very crude terms - the biggest and fittest caveman was more likely to breed with the most fit women.
Our problems now are largely to do with excessive demands on and competition for limited resources - especially land, water, food, energy, and precious minerals. In the Middle East, population and demands for water and land have boomed, and the consequences terrible.
Technology helps a lot, so too does birth control!
Great work!
I am curious as to why you would include pandemic years in the baseline.
I have used 2015-2019 inclusive as a baseline for "extra" (not excess) deaths and tried to parse out 2020 as a C19 only year, then 2021 as a partially vaxxed year and 2022 and 2023 as fully vaxxed years.
This does not adjust for the different strains of the SARS-COV2 virus - but gives a "feel" for what is going on.
To be clear, I don't believe there ever was a pandemic - most (95%) of C19 cases and deaths were misdiagnosed as "caused" by C19. 95% of deaths with C19 present were actually "death by healer" (murder) or preventable with antibiotics or were from cessation of existing treatments for other conditions.
I have cross posted this article as I think it has quality and valuable info!
Births and deaths are different (well, who would have guessed that...). Deaths depend on the structure of the population pyramid, and are mostly involuntary. Births depend on the number of women of child-bearing age (which can also change, but usually not that much) and on conscious decisions. Deaths immediately react to external influence (a pandemic, say), births with nine-months delay. The effect of Covid vaccination on births can only be visible from the beginning of 2022. The pandemic of 2020 seems to have had an effect on 2021 births for some countries (France, Portugal), but not for many.
Fair call. Thanks
The calendar year effect could be explained by birth not being immediately registered at birth. The birth statistics can be backed filled. Check out the British Columbia Vital Statistics.
This is an issue for some countries, particularly Switzerland (although I don't know how this can happen in a country where all trains are on time, always), but most countries rarely have to correct their figures, say, after three months.
No Lex. Look at Australia.
https://explore.data.abs.gov.au/vis?tm=births&pg=0&df%5Bds%5D=ABS_ABS_TOPICS&df%5Bid%5D=BIRTHS_MONTH_OCCURRENCE&df%5Bag%5D=ABS&df%5Bvs%5D=1.0.0&hc%5BMeasure%5D=Births&pd=1975%2C&dq=1..AUS.A&ly%5Bcl%5D=TIME_PERIOD&ly%5Brw%5D=MONTH_OCCUR
Australian government abruptly stopped publishing the total live births for Australia in December, 2021.
They can’t finalise December, 2021 because it will confirm November, 2021.
They’re stuck.
We'll see (on 18/10/2023):
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia
And what did we see after a two year hiatus? They painted the same kind of pattern. Monthly, monthly, monthly, oh shit. Pause one year. Another year. Panic. Pretend this is normal. And we're supposed to fall for this crap?
https://explore.data.abs.gov.au/vis?tm=births&pg=0&df%5Bds%5D=ABS_ABS_TOPICS&df%5Bid%5D=BIRTHS_MONTH_OCCURRENCE&df%5Bag%5D=ABS&df%5Bvs%5D=1.0.0&hc%5BMeasure%5D=Births&pd=1975%2C&dq=1..AUS.A&ly%5Bcl%5D=TIME_PERIOD&ly%5Brw%5D=MONTH_OCCUR
Counting births by date of registration is easy, counting them by date of occurrence is much harder. Some countries are better at that, some are worse. Australia seems to be bad, i.e., it takes longer until the figures are reliable. My guess: 2022 will end up with around 290,000 births, like 2020. Quite a drop when compared to 2021 (305,000 births), and reason enough to look for causes, but not exactly genocide.
I won’t believe a single word they say. They will lie and obfuscate. They painted themselves into a corner in 2021. They KNOW that the vaccines are biological weapons. Australia’s live birth reporting has gone from month-by-month to almost two years in arrears. It’s nearly 2024!
There is a recession in many european countries, especially in Germany. When the DDR broke down, the birth rates dropped dramatically. Germany is the worst off country at the moment. Thus, a drop in birth rates can also be caused by the economic situation in Europe.
Yes, it can. I will try to include some measure of economic well-being (like change in GDP divided by population size) into my collection of correlations.
Latest Data came from Sweden, continuation there now until July 2023.
https://substack.com/profile/124421064-ulf-lorre/note/c-40076307?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=222rwo
Obviously it could only have one cause ;-)
Global warming , haha!
Oh yes, average annual temperature or the change thereof have to be added to the list of fun correlations.
Excellent work staying with the European births data. So there appears to be a continued step down in 2023, sadly. Depopulation appears to already be here...
Well, falling birth rates have been evident for some decades: in Japan and Italy for example they are catastrophic and have been for a generation. So its complicated, but I certainly see this fall as way outside the trend.
Oh yes, for most Eastern and Southern European countries we basically see the continuation of a trend. It's different for Central and Northern Europe, however.
Would love to see isolated chart for just Bulgaria, with the lowest V uptake in EU.
Would also like to see that include back to 2019, for a "normal" baseline.
Appreciate your work, and know it's likely a huge ask and a terrific amount of number crunching, so not expecting it. Thanks.
There is data for Bulgaria in the Excel file, and a chart as well ("b Bul"). Monthly data are available for 2017-2022. By visual inspection of the chart, there has been a downward trends of births in Bulgaria during that time, but not much else. In particular, 2022 just confirms the trend.
thanks
Some of us need this spelled out. This doesn't look too good, correct?
No, it doesn't. The population pyramid will become top-heavy, which is bad. However, the reasons for the decline are not at all obvious. For most Eastern and Southern European countries, we basically see the continuation of a pre-pandemic trend. But now the Middle, Western and Northern European countries have suddenly joined. Is this due to declining number of women of child-bearing age (I don't think so, at least for Germany, although the authorities are claiming this to be the case)? Is it due to conscious decisions not to have children (because climate or whatever)? Yes, there are crazy people out there. Is it due to the Covid vaccines? Maybe, but why don't we observe the trend everywhere? Argumentation would have been easier if the downward trend had stopped in 2023, but it didn't.
It's just a whole lot of factors affecting various subpopulations in different ways and they are all stacking up. Some of these factors are very elusive and not easy to measure - like the impact of propagandistic efforts.
Lets go deeper: falling population fertility is not just a white thing: it is also happening in China and Japan, even Brazil.
Is it a bad thing? Well, not if we can bring in the brightest and best SE Asians and Africans - mainly to run our grocery stores, wipe our bums and do our laundry. (their kids will become doctors and wealthy business-peeps - immigrants tend to be aspirational and bright)
Is this good for Africa and SE Asia? Maybe so, if they keep sending remittances home to keep their families alive.
Clearly it is imperfect and complex, but I don't have any serious problems with keeping global population at between 1-2 billion humans, as long as it it voluntary. This would be good for the planet and wildlife... we would flourish. Nor do I have any problems with racial mixing - it is almost certainly a good thing genetically, albeit can create short-term social disparities and tensions.
I am very wary of claims of global optima, but I have intuition about local phenomena.
I don't know if 1-2 billion or 9-10 billion humans is "better", but I know that skewed population pyramids in specific countries lead to problems.
I don't know if there is an optimal global average temperature, but I know that we should all care about our environment.
Yeah I've been saying that all my life. Been preaching it to my daughter even.
But then they started killing us, so I changed my mind. :D
I guess it still rings true.
Much of the 'killing' appears to be hard wired - human beings always compete for resources, and the use of inter-tribal violence has been endemic since our emergence. It may even have had some evolutionary advantages, 'survival of the fittest' - in very crude terms - the biggest and fittest caveman was more likely to breed with the most fit women.
Our problems now are largely to do with excessive demands on and competition for limited resources - especially land, water, food, energy, and precious minerals. In the Middle East, population and demands for water and land have boomed, and the consequences terrible.
Technology helps a lot, so too does birth control!