I am surprised by huge drops in Eastern Europe, the least vaccinated countries by far. I'd expect Portugal to drop much more. The Netherlands surprise to the upside. Any theories why that is?
Some of the Eastern European states have a strong downward trend (e.g., Poland, Latvia, Lithuania) which is difficult to tell apart from other effects. A theory for Portugal and the Netherlands should start in 2021: why the decline resp. baby-boom?
Even within Germany, the signal is strange. On the one hand, decline is less pronounced among (less vaccinated) foreign women, on the other hand decline is stronger in (less vaccinated) Eastern Germany. Many Ukrainian women have given birth in Germany, but where?
A more complete analysis would have to consider the changing structure of the population pyramids in the different countries.
A baby boom should be followed by a bust as the former has front-loaded babies to the earlier time period. Also, the economic hardship or a war nearby should also cool the tempers. So far, interesting trends in Europe, but I am not 100% convinced (as much as I would like to be) that we have an incontrovertible proof of the vaccines being behind these trends to a major degree. I am sure they are to some degree, but it evades me to what extent exactly.
Yes, it is. But its population dynamics are very un-european (very young, and growing, population; around 3.5 times more births than deaths; subpopulations with strong religious convictions;...). Updated monthly birth figures, including December: 15091, 13439, 15262, 14216, 14699, 14799, 15629, 16271, 15082, 15533, 15311, 15651
Good find! Always nice to have the explanations for these outliers =)
"Findings
8,507,723 individuals in 268 cities were included. Compared with the general Jewish population, coverage was lowest in the Ultra-Orthodox population in all age groups (range -12% among 60+ to -52.8% among 10-19 years olds, p<0.001). In all groups, the proportion of vaccinated individuals in younger age groups relative to those aged 60+ decreased with decreasing age and were smallest in the Ultra-Orthodox groups. For example, within the general Jewish population, people aged 20-29 were 14% less likely to be vaccinated than those aged 60+ while within the Ultra-Orthodox population it was 34.5%"
In the above Excel file, on the "other" page, you can find data (and source links) for Ontario, Québec and British Columbia (which means 75% of the Canadian population). Québec and British Columbia have published data for the whole year 2022, Ontario until June.
Is there an official live link to those data.? I have for Ontario and data from there will be added soon to www.OpenCanada.info. But I don't have for other provinces.
In fact, if you can post all your links (whatever you have) to live data, I can à Tab on www.OpenCanada.info to visilialize all of them too,. Shall we?
Alternatively, I can also link open-canada. Info app to your excell file too - but this must assume that you never change how data is organized there, and will keep going it forever :)
I am surprised by huge drops in Eastern Europe, the least vaccinated countries by far. I'd expect Portugal to drop much more. The Netherlands surprise to the upside. Any theories why that is?
Some of the Eastern European states have a strong downward trend (e.g., Poland, Latvia, Lithuania) which is difficult to tell apart from other effects. A theory for Portugal and the Netherlands should start in 2021: why the decline resp. baby-boom?
Even within Germany, the signal is strange. On the one hand, decline is less pronounced among (less vaccinated) foreign women, on the other hand decline is stronger in (less vaccinated) Eastern Germany. Many Ukrainian women have given birth in Germany, but where?
A more complete analysis would have to consider the changing structure of the population pyramids in the different countries.
New marriages might be useful as indicator for attempts to create babies:
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-04-30/portugal-marriage-boom/66718
A baby boom should be followed by a bust as the former has front-loaded babies to the earlier time period. Also, the economic hardship or a war nearby should also cool the tempers. So far, interesting trends in Europe, but I am not 100% convinced (as much as I would like to be) that we have an incontrovertible proof of the vaccines being behind these trends to a major degree. I am sure they are to some degree, but it evades me to what extent exactly.
First to comment. :)
Excellent, cm. Thank you very much for this!
Israel is surprising.
Yes, it is. But its population dynamics are very un-european (very young, and growing, population; around 3.5 times more births than deaths; subpopulations with strong religious convictions;...). Updated monthly birth figures, including December: 15091, 13439, 15262, 14216, 14699, 14799, 15629, 16271, 15082, 15533, 15311, 15651
Interesting. I suppose vaccination rates in the ultra religious were also (much) lower?
That could explain it.
So it seems.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00220-9/fulltext
Good find! Always nice to have the explanations for these outliers =)
"Findings
8,507,723 individuals in 268 cities were included. Compared with the general Jewish population, coverage was lowest in the Ultra-Orthodox population in all age groups (range -12% among 60+ to -52.8% among 10-19 years olds, p<0.001). In all groups, the proportion of vaccinated individuals in younger age groups relative to those aged 60+ decreased with decreasing age and were smallest in the Ultra-Orthodox groups. For example, within the general Jewish population, people aged 20-29 were 14% less likely to be vaccinated than those aged 60+ while within the Ultra-Orthodox population it was 34.5%"
The official data have some distinction by population group (e.g., Jews vs others), but do not distinguish between ultra-orthodox and other Jews.
https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/publications/Pages/2023/Monthly-Bulletin-of-Statistics-February-2023.aspx
Excellent work!
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
(or from www.OpenCanada.info)
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022
In the above Excel file, on the "other" page, you can find data (and source links) for Ontario, Québec and British Columbia (which means 75% of the Canadian population). Québec and British Columbia have published data for the whole year 2022, Ontario until June.
Is there an official live link to those data.? I have for Ontario and data from there will be added soon to www.OpenCanada.info. But I don't have for other provinces.
In fact, if you can post all your links (whatever you have) to live data, I can à Tab on www.OpenCanada.info to visilialize all of them too,. Shall we?
Alternatively, I can also link open-canada. Info app to your excell file too - but this must assume that you never change how data is organized there, and will keep going it forever :)
I am not so sure about what evil I am going to do to my Excel file, but here are the links:
British Columbia:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/life-events/statistics-reports/births
Ontario:
https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/vital-events-data-by-month/resource/97622ce6-c06a-4970-afe5-be540c748f24
Québec:
https://statistique.quebec.ca/en/document/births-deaths-and-marriages-by-month-and-quarter-quebec/tableau/births-deaths-and-marriages-by-month-and-quarter-quebec#tri_phe=0
Alberta (no data for 2022 so far, expected for June 30):
https://open.alberta.ca/opendata/summary-of-vital-events-by-month-of-occurrence-in-alberta