It does seem that the decline in birthrate for 2022 in Northern Europe could be offset to some degree by the bonanza year of 2021, I mean, who a wants a baby 2 years on the trot. However, I don't feel this explains the dip completely by any stretch of the imagination. Is there a precedent, I wonder, for this in the past of offset of a previous bumper year?
Births for Ireland are reported by quarter; data is available until Q2 2022.
From at least 2011 until 2020, there has been a steady downward trend in births (2020 had 25% less births than 2011). In the year 2021, on the other hand, the number of births increased, and the first two quarters of 2022 show even higher number than those of 2021. It is too early to tell if this trend is sustainable.
I've been keeping an eye on Ireland births, both for very personal reasons and also because it has so far bucked the trend we have seen elsewhere. As you point out, the 10-year trend in Ireland was falling steadily.
However, in Q2 2021 there is a bigger drop, which is presumably attributable to the pandemic. In contrast, Q3 & Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 all jump above pre-pandemic levels, so likely a lockdown mini baby boom, as we have seen in other european nations.
Then Q2 2022 falls off to be comparable with Q2 pre-pandemic levels again. So while births increased substantially in 2022 Q1 and Q2 compared to 2021 (16% and 25% respectively) Q2 was actually just a return to pre-pandemic levels.
I wonder if it is a case similar to France where they had a slower rollout to the child-bearing age groups than Germany did... Ireland also had quite a strictly prioritised rollout and it was quite slow at first to the 20-29 and 30-39 age-groups and then quite rapid in weeks 25-30
Scroll down to "Primary Course Vaccination Status by Age Group" and Timeline of "Vaccinated with at least One Dose and Fully Vaccinated"
By week 16 only 10~12% of 20-39 year-olds had received one dose (healthcare workers)
By week 20 just 15~18%
By week 24 still 21~26%
At week 25 it accelerates and 72-78% of the 20-29 and 30-39 groups respectively had received at least one dose by week 30.
IF the correlation between vaccination and decline in births repeats in Ireland and they only releases quarterly figures, then I expect the decline to show up in the Q3 figures.
That is actually a very interesting question. I compared the 2017-2021 median values to the 2022 figures at Kanton level. The range is from 40.3% for Basel-Stadt (meaning that the number of births so far is 40.3% of the annual median 2017-2021) to 60.5% for Nidwalden. Many Kantone are small, so there are discreteness effects. As with Basel-Stadt, in general the effect seems to be larger in the big cities (Zürich, Bern). The value for Sitzerland as a whole is 51.0%. Taking Graubünden and Tessin as proxy for Italian-speking Switzerland gives 51.6%. French-speaking Switzerland can be approximated by aggregating Waadt, Wallis, Neuenburg, Genf, and Jura, with 51.7%. The complement (-> German-speaking) produces 50.9%, so there does not seem to be a linguistic divide, at least regarding births; there might be one in city vs country.
It does seem that the decline in birthrate for 2022 in Northern Europe could be offset to some degree by the bonanza year of 2021, I mean, who a wants a baby 2 years on the trot. However, I don't feel this explains the dip completely by any stretch of the imagination. Is there a precedent, I wonder, for this in the past of offset of a previous bumper year?
Overcompensation of a boom year is unlikely. Here's the example of Switzerland (starting around 9:35):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKzsTR6GWKc
Thanks CM
My parents didn't seem to mind a baby a year for a while.
How does Ireland compare? Do you have their numbers?
Births for Ireland are reported by quarter; data is available until Q2 2022.
From at least 2011 until 2020, there has been a steady downward trend in births (2020 had 25% less births than 2011). In the year 2021, on the other hand, the number of births increased, and the first two quarters of 2022 show even higher number than those of 2021. It is too early to tell if this trend is sustainable.
https://www.economy.com/ireland/births
mRNA vaccines have been given to Irish women since May 2021.
https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/get-the-vaccine/pregnancy/
@cm27874
I've been keeping an eye on Ireland births, both for very personal reasons and also because it has so far bucked the trend we have seen elsewhere. As you point out, the 10-year trend in Ireland was falling steadily.
However, in Q2 2021 there is a bigger drop, which is presumably attributable to the pandemic. In contrast, Q3 & Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 all jump above pre-pandemic levels, so likely a lockdown mini baby boom, as we have seen in other european nations.
Then Q2 2022 falls off to be comparable with Q2 pre-pandemic levels again. So while births increased substantially in 2022 Q1 and Q2 compared to 2021 (16% and 25% respectively) Q2 was actually just a return to pre-pandemic levels.
Quarterly births data (totals and births per 1,000 pop.) available here: https://data.cso.ie/table/VSQ04
I wonder if it is a case similar to France where they had a slower rollout to the child-bearing age groups than Germany did... Ireland also had quite a strictly prioritised rollout and it was quite slow at first to the 20-29 and 30-39 age-groups and then quite rapid in weeks 25-30
See dashboard: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/vaccinations
Scroll down to "Primary Course Vaccination Status by Age Group" and Timeline of "Vaccinated with at least One Dose and Fully Vaccinated"
By week 16 only 10~12% of 20-39 year-olds had received one dose (healthcare workers)
By week 20 just 15~18%
By week 24 still 21~26%
At week 25 it accelerates and 72-78% of the 20-29 and 30-39 groups respectively had received at least one dose by week 30.
IF the correlation between vaccination and decline in births repeats in Ireland and they only releases quarterly figures, then I expect the decline to show up in the Q3 figures.
Here's a link to the data, for anyone else who wants it:
https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birthsdeathsandmarriages/vitalstatistics/
Thank you!
The European-wide data certainly seems to be pointing to some different regional/cultural trends.
DE-AUT-CH-SWE-NOR-UK
FR-BEL-NLD-DK?
PRT-SPA-IT
Which seems to go against the phenomenon being connected to the vaccination campaigns.
But I just dunno anymore, there is definitely something really weird and unprecdented going on in DACH region.
Perhaps the 'eagerness' of the German-speakers of this world to 'overdo' and 'outcompete' each other in compliance with mandates?
re Switzerland: is the trend uniform across the linguistic divides (with the French- and Italian-speaking Swiss)?
That is actually a very interesting question. I compared the 2017-2021 median values to the 2022 figures at Kanton level. The range is from 40.3% for Basel-Stadt (meaning that the number of births so far is 40.3% of the annual median 2017-2021) to 60.5% for Nidwalden. Many Kantone are small, so there are discreteness effects. As with Basel-Stadt, in general the effect seems to be larger in the big cities (Zürich, Bern). The value for Sitzerland as a whole is 51.0%. Taking Graubünden and Tessin as proxy for Italian-speking Switzerland gives 51.6%. French-speaking Switzerland can be approximated by aggregating Waadt, Wallis, Neuenburg, Genf, and Jura, with 51.7%. The complement (-> German-speaking) produces 50.9%, so there does not seem to be a linguistic divide, at least regarding births; there might be one in city vs country.