I think Sam Harris is implying something like this: There were 1.12M people in the US who have died of covid. Of these, X percent were antivaxxers. If these darned antivaxxers had gotten a vaccine, we would have saved 300,000 lives!
Your calculations take the number of lives saved, 300,000, and uses this to calculate the VE, which was found to be 80%.
What I don't get is how you are looking at deaths through time alongside vaccines through time. Your max possible vaxxed chart makes sense. It seems to me that the possible deaths that could have been avoided are those deaths after the hyphothetical 100% vaxxed date, or 3/9/2021. I see that the max vax rate actual asymptotically approaches 70% from 55% from 3/9/21 to 3/3/23.
Anyway, I don't see how you came up with the distribution of the number of deaths that could have been avoided based on when the vaccines could have been taken.
I have come to realise that the pwoplw I used to think were smart, the smartest even, are actually a bunch of thick bellends; and those that I used to think were crazy, are actually smart as fuck. Sam Harris is an utter douchebag.
I think Sam Harris is implying something like this: There were 1.12M people in the US who have died of covid. Of these, X percent were antivaxxers. If these darned antivaxxers had gotten a vaccine, we would have saved 300,000 lives!
Your calculations take the number of lives saved, 300,000, and uses this to calculate the VE, which was found to be 80%.
What I don't get is how you are looking at deaths through time alongside vaccines through time. Your max possible vaxxed chart makes sense. It seems to me that the possible deaths that could have been avoided are those deaths after the hyphothetical 100% vaxxed date, or 3/9/2021. I see that the max vax rate actual asymptotically approaches 70% from 55% from 3/9/21 to 3/3/23.
Anyway, I don't see how you came up with the distribution of the number of deaths that could have been avoided based on when the vaccines could have been taken.
I have come to realise that the pwoplw I used to think were smart, the smartest even, are actually a bunch of thick bellends; and those that I used to think were crazy, are actually smart as fuck. Sam Harris is an utter douchebag.