Strangely, despite vax-passport restrictions (so-called 2G) in winter 21/22, uptake drops significantly between 2 doses and 3 (why, if so effective and safe?) BUT effectiveness apparently increases - huh?
Then, after vax-passport restrictions are lifted in spring '22, uptake slumps between 3 doses and 4 (why, if so effective and safe?) AND effectiveness increases even further!
For example, in 60+ population this screams (to me):
85.5% -> 41.4% = "buyers remorse" + "removal of government enforcement" + "healthy user bias"
Arguably the discrepancy between 60+ unvaxxed rate and ICU rate points to vax efficacy but is hopelessly confounded by the unknown make up of unvaxxed population (healthy?/unhealthy?).
"Therefore, a placebo vaccine would result in ICU vaccination rates closer to the 60+ population rates than to the general population rates."
Not sure about this, the profile of Covid ICU patients is predominantly older regardless of any vax status, so wouldn't placebo vax result in ICU rates closer to pre-vax rates?
Nice work, CM!
Another angle is the revealed preference of the German public in your table
Vax status : unvax ->1+ doses ->2+ doses -> 3+ doses -> 4+ doses
Rates on ICU: 13.5% -> 78.0% -> 76.4% -> 62.7% -> 16.2%
Vax rate 60+ : 8.9% -> 91.1% -> 90.1% -> 85.5% -> 41.4%
Strangely, despite vax-passport restrictions (so-called 2G) in winter 21/22, uptake drops significantly between 2 doses and 3 (why, if so effective and safe?) BUT effectiveness apparently increases - huh?
Then, after vax-passport restrictions are lifted in spring '22, uptake slumps between 3 doses and 4 (why, if so effective and safe?) AND effectiveness increases even further!
For example, in 60+ population this screams (to me):
91.1% -> 90.1% = "serious adverse events"
90.1% -> 85.5% = "buyers remorse" + "serious adverse events"
85.5% -> 41.4% = "buyers remorse" + "removal of government enforcement" + "healthy user bias"
Arguably the discrepancy between 60+ unvaxxed rate and ICU rate points to vax efficacy but is hopelessly confounded by the unknown make up of unvaxxed population (healthy?/unhealthy?).
"Therefore, a placebo vaccine would result in ICU vaccination rates closer to the 60+ population rates than to the general population rates."
Not sure about this, the profile of Covid ICU patients is predominantly older regardless of any vax status, so wouldn't placebo vax result in ICU rates closer to pre-vax rates?