Thanks for posting the nice visuals. They helped me realize a key problem in the arguments going back and forth: nobody is correcting the vaccine-associated Gompertz function with the demographic weights of those being vaccinated at any one moment, which shift dramatically over time. They are front-loaded, and I am certain that correcting for that weight will show the mortality curve begin to trail the vaccination curve.
I will do that work once I'm no longer tied to the DMED investigation.
Good luck with that; I hope that the information required is out there. This is not the case for Germany. Right from the start, vaccinations have been recorded in four categories only: 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, 60+. Joel Smalley has done all that can be done:
I have no idea why the RKI did not go more granular wrt age. There's rarely any situation where you have a factor with as much discriminatory power as age for Covid:
Is it correct to say this is a hypothetical example of Simpson's paradox: i.e. getting the opposite result (in this case the opposite order of the curves) as one would expect, owing to overaggregation (in this case of age)?
Yes, if the declining mortality rate h(t) can be explained by changes in the vacinee population (e.g., vaccinating the elderly and frail first).
No, if the declining mortality rate can be explained by the vaccine alone (e.g., all the vaccine doses have been produced in advance, and contain some poison that decays over time).
In practice, I'd lean towards the first possibility (problems due to different batches aside), so your proposition is a nice one-sentence explanation.
Thanks for posting the nice visuals. They helped me realize a key problem in the arguments going back and forth: nobody is correcting the vaccine-associated Gompertz function with the demographic weights of those being vaccinated at any one moment, which shift dramatically over time. They are front-loaded, and I am certain that correcting for that weight will show the mortality curve begin to trail the vaccination curve.
I will do that work once I'm no longer tied to the DMED investigation.
Good luck with that; I hope that the information required is out there. This is not the case for Germany. Right from the start, vaccinations have been recorded in four categories only: 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, 60+. Joel Smalley has done all that can be done:
https://metatron.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-in-germany?s=r
I have no idea why the RKI did not go more granular wrt age. There's rarely any situation where you have a factor with as much discriminatory power as age for Covid:
https://cm27874.substack.com/p/credit-for-covid?s=w
Is it correct to say this is a hypothetical example of Simpson's paradox: i.e. getting the opposite result (in this case the opposite order of the curves) as one would expect, owing to overaggregation (in this case of age)?
Yes, if the declining mortality rate h(t) can be explained by changes in the vacinee population (e.g., vaccinating the elderly and frail first).
No, if the declining mortality rate can be explained by the vaccine alone (e.g., all the vaccine doses have been produced in advance, and contain some poison that decays over time).
In practice, I'd lean towards the first possibility (problems due to different batches aside), so your proposition is a nice one-sentence explanation.