Thanks for posting the nice visuals. They helped me realize a key problem in the arguments going back and forth: nobody is correcting the vaccine-associated Gompertz function with the demographic weights of those being vaccinated at any one moment, which shift dramatically over time. They are front-loaded, and I am certain that correcting for that weight will show the mortality curve begin to trail the vaccination curve.
I will do that work once I'm no longer tied to the DMED investigation.
Is it correct to say this is a hypothetical example of Simpson's paradox: i.e. getting the opposite result (in this case the opposite order of the curves) as one would expect, owing to overaggregation (in this case of age)?
Thanks for posting the nice visuals. They helped me realize a key problem in the arguments going back and forth: nobody is correcting the vaccine-associated Gompertz function with the demographic weights of those being vaccinated at any one moment, which shift dramatically over time. They are front-loaded, and I am certain that correcting for that weight will show the mortality curve begin to trail the vaccination curve.
I will do that work once I'm no longer tied to the DMED investigation.
Is it correct to say this is a hypothetical example of Simpson's paradox: i.e. getting the opposite result (in this case the opposite order of the curves) as one would expect, owing to overaggregation (in this case of age)?