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This blast-from-the-past is good perspective, although that Paul Ehrlich Institute estimate of just 10 suspicious deaths per million COVID mRNA shots is too low. Even just the deaths reported to VAERS for Moderna came in at a rate of over 30 death reports per million doses.

And VAERS, itself, underestimates true death.

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Jan 22Liked by cm27874

This is a great way to explain managing risks ! I found this article because of your link to it in your January 2024 article. Better late than never...

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Hi cm27874, nice post using your Credit Risk Modelling hammer.

And for some reason, the concept of Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) in order to prevent an outcome (e.g. infection/hospitalisation/ICU/death) has completely fallen out of use in the current discussions about mandatory vaccinations!?

In converstations I've been having, I try to use the idea of "diminishing returns" or "less bang for your vaccine dollar" to try to communicate how ineffective and naive the efforts to increase vaccine coverage by vaccinating down through the age groups are.

Eugyppius also had a good post about the highly disproportionate effect the remaining percentage of unvaccinated in the older age groups are having on the ICU and death outcomes:

"Of all Covid patients in the ICU, about 80% are over 50 and most have risk factors such as high

blood pressure, heart failure or diabetes." The vaccinators are vaccinating the wrong people.

And now the new German health minister has even announced there is now a shortage of vaccines!

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Hi cm27874,

I just found this piece--it's awesome. Keep this up!

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