The Dutch were very liberal concerning euthanasia already before 2020, hence, they had far less objections against implementing "end of life care" with midazolam + morphine (MiMo, or generally speaking with benzos + opioids) in April 2020. Following WHO suggestions (that were taken from the scene soon later).
Then both countries employed these rules end of 2020. Hence, I would explain most of the differences later on with a dry tinder effect in NL.
Obviously, NRW had been hit far harder end of 2022. If do not have a reasonably idea for this. I would discard flu and C19 as very unlikely. But even the fax campaign does not appear to a stringent argument.
Finally, may I suggest doing a similar comparison with Belgium, meaning NRW to Belgium. I speculate: It will look even more extreme in April 2020.
Yes, euthanasia may have played a role. However, this is not reflected in the official figures (which have gone up, particularly in 2022, but not that much).
"On Tuesday April 4, the Dutch Regional Euthanasia Review Committees published their annual report about 2022 (only in Dutch yet). In 2022, the RTE received 8,720 notifications of euthanasia. That is 5.1% of the total number people who died in the Netherlands last year. This is an increase of 13.7% compared to 2021. In 2021 the percentage has increased with 0.4 percentage points compared to 2020."
Important: ..received ... notifications...
Those urgent cases of "help in dying" might have been unofficial and might not have been noted to them. Most likely, as they were largely illegal. Presumably without informed consent.
NRW 2022 is explainable. Extraordinary high common mortality walked along with high PCR incidences. As a result, additional deaths "with" C19 (not "caused by") got into the books.
Maybe they had stopped the PCR testing mania? We spent holidays in the Netherlands, both in Oct 2020 and Oct 2021. Especially in Oct 2021, the only people seen to be wearing masks were German tourists. It was quite a nice break from the madness in Germany during that time.
Hi cm, that's another pretty interesting gimmick. Thanks for that.
I'm a little surprised to see Oranje in black lines. :-)
The time difference could be stochastic. I remember from much earlier years that the area records of the RKI surveillance of acute respiratory diseases often looked like bubbles in a saucepan. You don't actually see waves that cross the whole country. Here's an example: https://influenza.rki.de/Maps/2018_2019/2018_2019.gif
"During Covid" (strange expression, it will always be "during Covid" now) I had the impression that Bavaria was always hit first, the North last. But who knows, it might indeed have been stochastic.
We shouldn't overestimate Bavaria. That was part of a script, you know, the story of the supposedly symptom-free Chinese woman who brought C19 with her - later exposed as Drosten's lie. In reality, the woman had a fever and had taken paracetamol. A short time later, the mass outbreak at the Rhineland carnival was in the media, which Streeck investigated scientifically. Not to forget the eastern federal states. They had hardly any cases during the first lockdown, even though they border Bavaria. But got a terrible beating in the second lockdown. And finally, we know from blood donations and wastewater tests that C19 was here in late 2019. All of this suggests that the propagation characteristics are more like a breeding ground with a few mold spores from the air than a passing wave. We only saw what was measured at a time and at a place, but it wasn't measured the same way all the time.
But I think your introduction of a time difference is still methodologically correct. The text above is just for explanation.
Thank you very much!
Excellent work!
Some suggestions.
I am not at all surprised by the Dutch lines.
The Dutch were very liberal concerning euthanasia already before 2020, hence, they had far less objections against implementing "end of life care" with midazolam + morphine (MiMo, or generally speaking with benzos + opioids) in April 2020. Following WHO suggestions (that were taken from the scene soon later).
Then both countries employed these rules end of 2020. Hence, I would explain most of the differences later on with a dry tinder effect in NL.
Obviously, NRW had been hit far harder end of 2022. If do not have a reasonably idea for this. I would discard flu and C19 as very unlikely. But even the fax campaign does not appear to a stringent argument.
Finally, may I suggest doing a similar comparison with Belgium, meaning NRW to Belgium. I speculate: It will look even more extreme in April 2020.
Yes, euthanasia may have played a role. However, this is not reflected in the official figures (which have gone up, particularly in 2022, but not that much).
https://wfrtds.org/dutch-euthanasia-review-committees-published-report-on-2022/
Again, thank you very much!
Therein:
"On Tuesday April 4, the Dutch Regional Euthanasia Review Committees published their annual report about 2022 (only in Dutch yet). In 2022, the RTE received 8,720 notifications of euthanasia. That is 5.1% of the total number people who died in the Netherlands last year. This is an increase of 13.7% compared to 2021. In 2021 the percentage has increased with 0.4 percentage points compared to 2020."
Important: ..received ... notifications...
Those urgent cases of "help in dying" might have been unofficial and might not have been noted to them. Most likely, as they were largely illegal. Presumably without informed consent.
NRW 2022 is explainable. Extraordinary high common mortality walked along with high PCR incidences. As a result, additional deaths "with" C19 (not "caused by") got into the books.
But why were there so few in NL?
Maybe they had stopped the PCR testing mania? We spent holidays in the Netherlands, both in Oct 2020 and Oct 2021. Especially in Oct 2021, the only people seen to be wearing masks were German tourists. It was quite a nice break from the madness in Germany during that time.
Sorry, my mistake.
I interpreteted your second figure as if NRW had had higher ACM.
When looking at Euromomo, though Germany as a whole, NL was similer at end of 2022.
Hi cm, that's another pretty interesting gimmick. Thanks for that.
I'm a little surprised to see Oranje in black lines. :-)
The time difference could be stochastic. I remember from much earlier years that the area records of the RKI surveillance of acute respiratory diseases often looked like bubbles in a saucepan. You don't actually see waves that cross the whole country. Here's an example: https://influenza.rki.de/Maps/2018_2019/2018_2019.gif
Of course, Oranje! My bad...
"During Covid" (strange expression, it will always be "during Covid" now) I had the impression that Bavaria was always hit first, the North last. But who knows, it might indeed have been stochastic.
We shouldn't overestimate Bavaria. That was part of a script, you know, the story of the supposedly symptom-free Chinese woman who brought C19 with her - later exposed as Drosten's lie. In reality, the woman had a fever and had taken paracetamol. A short time later, the mass outbreak at the Rhineland carnival was in the media, which Streeck investigated scientifically. Not to forget the eastern federal states. They had hardly any cases during the first lockdown, even though they border Bavaria. But got a terrible beating in the second lockdown. And finally, we know from blood donations and wastewater tests that C19 was here in late 2019. All of this suggests that the propagation characteristics are more like a breeding ground with a few mold spores from the air than a passing wave. We only saw what was measured at a time and at a place, but it wasn't measured the same way all the time.
But I think your introduction of a time difference is still methodologically correct. The text above is just for explanation.
Always a pleasure to read your work :)
Very interesting contrasting of age distributions.
Best opening... Xx